Should I fix my home loan after rate rises?

Fixing after rates have already risen generally won't save you money, because banks price fixed rates on where they expect variable rates to go. It's a choice between certainty and flexibility, not a way to beat the market.

How do banks set fixed interest rates?

Banks price fixed rates based on what they expect variable rates to do over the fixed period, so that they still make money whatever happens to rates.

Is it too late to fix my rate?

If rates have already risen several times, those rises are generally built into today's fixed rates. You can still fix for certainty, but you're paying today's price for it.

Can I fix part of my home loan?

Yes, many lenders let you split the loan so part is fixed and part is variable. You get some repayment certainty while keeping some flexibility, like an offset or extra repayments on the variable part.

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Straight Answers · Refinancing

Rates went up again. Should I fix?

Bayley Clarke · Mortgage broker on the road · Last checked 16 October 2026 · 3 min read

The short answer

Late to the party, is what I say. The banks price their fixed rates on where they expect variable rates to go, so by the time rates have gone up a few times, those rises are already built into the fixed rate you're being offered.

So there's no winning by fixing now. There's no right answer either. It comes down to whether you want certainty, knowing your repayments won't change for a set period, or whether your cash flow is fine and you can weather the storm on variable.

The 60 second version, filmed from the driver's seat. The rest of this page is the detail underneath it.

How banks price a fixed rate

A fixed rate isn't a bet the bank is hoping to lose. The banks price their fixed rates based on what they expect variable rates to do over the fixed period. They've got whole teams of analysts working out exactly where to set them so that, whatever rates do, the bank still makes money off you.

They are profit maximising machines, and that's not an insult, it's the business model. It just means the fixed rate on offer today already has the bank's best guess about future rises baked into it. You're not getting ahead of them by fixing after the rises have happened.

Why fixing now is late to the party

In light of all the rate rises this year, the banks have also been lifting their fixed rates. The window where a fixed rate looked cheap compared to where variable was heading has mostly gone, because the banks moved first.

So for you that means fixing today is generally not a way to save money on what's coming. It's a way to buy certainty at today's price. That can still be worth doing. Just go in knowing that's what you're paying for, not a discount on the future.

So which one suits you

I think of it as a personality spectrum. If you're someone who needs to know exactly what's coming out of your account every month, and a few more rises would genuinely keep you up at night, fixing buys you that peace of mind for a set period.

If your cash flow is alright, you've got a buffer, and you'd rather keep the flexibility of an offset and extra repayments, you can weather the storm and cop the variable rate as it moves. Plenty of people split the loan, part fixed and part variable, to get some of both. None of these is the winning answer. They're different trade-offs.

The honest bit: nobody's got a crystal ball

Not me, not the bank, not the person on the news. If rates keep rising faster than the banks expected, the people who fixed will look smart. If they level off or come down, variable will look smart. Nobody knows which.

What I can do is show you the repayment difference in dollars each month and week, so you're choosing between real numbers, not headlines.

Want fixed and variable side by side for your loan?

A 30 minute call. We put your loan up against current fixed and variable options, show the repayment difference monthly and weekly, and look at whether a split makes sense for you.

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Next question

Should I go fixed or variable?

There is no universally right answer. Fixing buys certainty of repayment, variable buys flexibility.