The RBA just raised rates. Again. Here's what's going on, why it happened, and what it actually means if you're buying, refinancing, or just trying to figure out where things are headed.
No spin. No economic jargon. Just a straight breakdown from someone who talks to borrowers every day.
What the RBA did in March 2026
On 17 March 2026, the RBA raised the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.10%.
This was the second consecutive rate hike — they also raised in February. And it was a close call. The board was split: five members voted to raise, four voted to hold. That tells you even the people making the decision aren't fully aligned on where things are going.
All four major banks — CBA, NAB, ANZ, Westpac — passed the full increase through to variable home loans. If you're on a variable rate, your repayments just went up.
The rate cycle — what happened and when
Three rate cuts
Feb: cut to 4.10% · May: cut to 3.85% · Aug: cut to 3.60%
Inflation was coming down. The RBA started easing. Everyone thought we were on the way to lower rates for good.
Inflation picked back up
Rising rents, insurance premiums, energy costs, and fuel prices (driven by the Middle East conflict) pushed inflation higher than expected in the second half of 2025.
Two rate hikes (so far)
Feb: raised to 3.85% · Mar: raised to 4.10%
The RBA reversed course. We're now back to where we were before any of the 2025 cuts happened.
Why did they raise after cutting?
Short version: inflation came back.
The 2025 cuts were based on inflation heading in the right direction. But it didn't stay there. A few things happened at once:
- ✓ Rents kept climbing — rental supply hasn't kept pace with demand, especially in capital cities
- ✓ Insurance and energy costs surged — these hit everyone and they're sticky (they don't come down fast)
- ✓ Fuel prices spiked — the conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices up, which flows through to petrol and transport costs
- ✓ The labour market stayed strong — low unemployment means people are spending, which keeps demand high
The RBA's job is to get inflation back into the 2–3% target band. When it started moving the wrong way, they hit the brakes.
What's expected for the rest of 2026?
Here's what the big four banks and economists are saying:
May 2026: All four major banks currently expect another 0.25% hike, which would take the cash rate to 4.35% — the same peak we saw in the 2023–2024 tightening cycle. But the split board decision in March means a pause is also possible.
Beyond May: It's genuinely uncertain. About half of economists surveyed expect at least two more hikes over the next 18 months. Others think rates could hold if inflation starts easing. The RBA itself has flagged that inflation might not return to the midpoint of the target band until mid-2028.
Rate cuts later in 2026? Possible, but only if inflation comes down sustainably. Don't bank on it.
What this means if you're buying
Here's the practical impact:
Your borrowing power just dropped. Each 0.25% hike reduces what a lender will give you by roughly $12,000–$18,000 for a median-income household. If you got pre-approved a few months ago, your numbers may have changed. Worth getting them re-run. If you're a first home buyer, this is especially important to stay on top of.
Property prices aren't crashing though. Despite the hikes, the market's staying resilient. ANZ is forecasting prices to rise around 4.8% in 2026 — slower than 2025's 7.3%, but still going up. Low housing supply and strong population growth are propping things up.
Waiting for rates to drop isn't always the move. If you wait for rates to come down, you're also waiting while property prices keep climbing. In a lot of cases, the extra you pay in interest now is less than the extra you'd pay for a more expensive property later.
What this means if you've got a mortgage
On variable? Your repayments just went up. On a $500k loan, the two 2026 hikes have added roughly $150–$160 per month to your repayments. If another hike comes in May, expect another $75–$80 on top.
On fixed? You're unaffected until your fixed term expires. But if you're coming off a fixed rate in the next 6–12 months, now's the time to start planning. Don't wait until settlement day to figure out your next move.
Should you fix? Maybe. Fixed rates have already priced in expected hikes, so they won't be as low as you'd hope. But if certainty matters to you — especially with more hikes potentially on the way — fixing part of your loan (a split) could make sense. It's not one-size-fits-all. I run both scenarios for every client.
What this means for refinancing
If you haven't reviewed your rate in the last 12 months, you should. Lenders are competing hard for new business right now. Even with rates going up, there are cash-back deals and sharp rates available that your current lender probably isn't offering you.
I've seen clients save $200–$400 a month just by switching — same loan, better rate, took 20 minutes of their time. Check out my client reviews to see what others say about the process.
The bottom line
Rates went up. They might go up again. Nobody knows for sure where they'll be in 12 months — not the banks, not the economists, and definitely not the bloke on TikTok telling you property is about to crash.
What I do know: the best time to get your situation sorted is now. Whether you're buying, refinancing, or just want someone to look at your numbers and tell you straight where you stand — that's what I do.
Free. No pressure. Just a conversation.